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Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications*

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Practical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability in a risk model with additional funds
Volume 1, Issue 2 (2014), pp. 167–180
Yuliya Mishura   Olena Ragulina   Oleksandr Stroyev  

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https://doi.org/10.15559/15-MSTA18
Pub. online: 2 February 2015      Type: Research Article      Open accessOpen Access

Received
4 January 2015
Accepted
19 January 2015
Published
2 February 2015

Abstract

We deal with a generalization of the classical risk model when an insurance company gets additional funds whenever a claim arrives and consider some practical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability. In particular, we get an upper exponential bound and construct an analogue to the De Vylder approximation for the ruin probability. We compare results of these approaches with statistical estimates obtained by the Monte Carlo method for selected distributions of claim sizes and additional funds.

References

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Choi, S.K., Choi, M.H., Lee, H.S., Lee, E.Y.: New approximations of ruin probability in a risk process. Qual. Technol. Quant. Manag. 7, 377–383 (2010)
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De Vylder, F.: A practical solution to the problem of ultimate ruin probability. Scand. Actuar. J. 1978, 114–119 (1978)
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Gerber, H.U.: Martingales in risk theory. Mitt. – Schweiz. Ver. Versicher.math. 73, 205–216 (1973)
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Grandell, J.: Simple approximations of ruin probabilities. Insur. Math. Econ. 26, 157–173 (2000) MR1787834. doi:10.1016/S0167-6687(99)00050-5
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Hoeffding, W.: Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 58, 13–30 (1963) MR0144363
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Mishura, Y., Ragulina, O., Stroyev, O.: Analytic properties of the survival probability in a risk model with additional funds. Teor. Imovirnost. Mat. Stat. 91, 123–135 (2014) (in Ukrainian)
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Rolski, T., Schmidli, H., Schmidt, V., Teugels, J.: Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester (1999) MR1680267. doi:10.1002/9780470317044

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Open access article under the CC BY license.

Keywords
Risk model survival probability exponential bound De Vylder approximation Monte Carlo method

MSC2010
91B30 60G51

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